Heatwave Horror
Here we go again. Yet another heatwave here in London. And, with the Met Office forecasting 34C, it’s very likely
Continue readingCategory: Complex decisions
Rishi, Isn’t Inflation the Problem?
The Chancellor could have subsidised energy prices directly, which would not only have reduced inflation (depending how the ONS deals
Continue readingCovid-19: On the Waning Effectiveness of Vaccines
Data presented at recent Downing Street press conferences appears to understate the effectiveness of vaccination at preventing hospitalisation with Covid-19.
Continue readingCovid-19: How Seasonal is it?
In my previous post I mused that: “…if the seasonal effect is not extreme, the UK might achieve sustained herd
Continue readingOn Herd Immunity
Definition When would we be able to say that a region or country has achieved “herd immunity” to a contagious
Continue readingCovid-19: Herd Immunity in the UK
“…’cos I wanna be… herd immunity!” with apologies to the Pistols (00:29) The ongoing Covid epidemic in the UK will
Continue readingCovid-19: The UK’s Loose Lockdown
The Sunday Times Insight team reported yesterday (paywall) that the UK could have avoided thousands of Covid-19 deaths by going
Continue readingCovid-19: How Useful Are R and R0?
The epidemiological concept of the basic reproduction number for an infection, R0, is so context-dependent as to be almost useless,
Continue readingCovid-19: Lockdown Early and Lockdown Hard; Comparing China and UK
Very simple modelling shows the case and death rate in an epidemic, such as of Covid-19, to be highly sensitive
Continue readingCovid-19: Data, data, data (as well as test, test, test)
Let me try to make a single point very briefly (for once). If you’re trying to manage an epidemic, an
Continue reading
Recent Comments