Covid-19: On the Waning Effectiveness of Vaccines
Data presented at recent Downing Street press conferences appears to understate the effectiveness of vaccination at preventing hospitalisation with Covid-19.
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Covid-19: How Seasonal is it?
In my previous post I mused that: “…if the seasonal effect is not extreme, the UK might achieve sustained herd
Continue readingOn Herd Immunity
Definition When would we be able to say that a region or country has achieved “herd immunity” to a contagious
Continue readingCovid-19: Herd Immunity in the UK
“…’cos I wanna be… herd immunity!” with apologies to the Pistols (00:29) The ongoing Covid epidemic in the UK will
Continue readingCovid-19: The UK’s Loose Lockdown
The Sunday Times Insight team reported yesterday (paywall) that the UK could have avoided thousands of Covid-19 deaths by going
Continue readingCovid-19: How Useful Are R and R0?
The epidemiological concept of the basic reproduction number for an infection, R0, is so context-dependent as to be almost useless,
Continue readingCovid-19: Lockdown Early and Lockdown Hard; Comparing China and UK
Very simple modelling shows the case and death rate in an epidemic, such as of Covid-19, to be highly sensitive
Continue readingCovid-19: Data, data, data (as well as test, test, test)
Let me try to make a single point very briefly (for once). If you’re trying to manage an epidemic, an
Continue readingThe Covid-19 Files (5): Test for Antibodies NOW
A test for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 does not have to be extremely reliable at the individual level in order to
Continue readingThe Covid-19 Files (4): Comments on “Impact of NPIs…” Paper of 16th March
The UK’s coronavirus response, in particular the transition over the last week from a “mitigation” policy to “suppression”, has been
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