Category: Complex decisions

Covid-19: How Seasonal is it?

In my previous post I mused that: “…if the seasonal effect is not extreme, the UK might achieve sustained herd

Definition When would we be able to say that a region or country has achieved “herd immunity” to a contagious

“…’cos I wanna be… herd immunity!” with apologies to the Pistols (00:29) The ongoing Covid epidemic in the UK will

The Sunday Times Insight team reported yesterday (paywall) that the UK could have avoided thousands of Covid-19 deaths by going

The epidemiological concept of the basic reproduction number for an infection, R0, is so context-dependent as to be almost useless,

Very simple modelling shows the case and death rate in an epidemic, such as of Covid-19, to be highly sensitive

Let me try to make a single point very briefly (for once). If you’re trying to manage an epidemic, an

A test for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 does not have to be extremely reliable at the individual level in order to

The UK’s coronavirus response, in particular the transition over the last week from a “mitigation” policy to “suppression”, has been

“I think people will interpret membership of the single market as not respecting that referendum.” – John McDonnell You can’t