Lucy Letby’s supposed non-randomness
Lucy Letby has been convicted of a series of murders and attempted murders that were clustered in time. If she
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Lucy Letby, Damn Lies and Statistics
Lucy Letby may not be guilty after all. The case began with and relied on a dodgy statistical association between
Continue readingCovid-19: On the Waning Effectiveness of Vaccines
Data presented at recent Downing Street press conferences appears to understate the effectiveness of vaccination at preventing hospitalisation with Covid-19.
Continue readingCovid-19: Herd Immunity in the UK
“…’cos I wanna be… herd immunity!” with apologies to the Pistols (00:29) The ongoing Covid epidemic in the UK will
Continue readingCovid-19: How Useful Are R and R0?
The epidemiological concept of the basic reproduction number for an infection, R0, is so context-dependent as to be almost useless,
Continue readingCovid-19: A Baffling NERVTAG Minute
When I arrived at university I wanted to specialise in genetics; by the time I left I wished I’d focussed
Continue readingCovid-19: Lockdown Early and Lockdown Hard; Comparing China and UK
Very simple modelling shows the case and death rate in an epidemic, such as of Covid-19, to be highly sensitive
Continue readingThe Covid-19 Files (6): the Select Committee Actually Replied!
So, back near the dawn of time, it seems, I posted a discussion of how Professor Chris Whitty, the UK’s
Continue readingCovid-19: Strategic Options
It is of crucial importance for governments to make an assessment as early as possible in an epidemic as to
Continue readingCovid-19: Data, data, data (as well as test, test, test)
Let me try to make a single point very briefly (for once). If you’re trying to manage an epidemic, an
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