Covid-19: On the Waning Effectiveness of Vaccines
Data presented at recent Downing Street press conferences appears to understate the effectiveness of vaccination at preventing hospitalisation with Covid-19.
Continue readingCovid-19: How Seasonal is it?
In my previous post I mused that: “…if the seasonal effect is not extreme, the UK might achieve sustained herd
Continue readingOn Herd Immunity
Definition When would we be able to say that a region or country has achieved “herd immunity” to a contagious
Continue readingCovid-19: Herd Immunity in the UK
“…’cos I wanna be… herd immunity!” with apologies to the Pistols (00:29) The ongoing Covid epidemic in the UK will
Continue readingEaling Broadway Tesco Price Hikes
It’s being reported this morning that there is pressure on supermarket prices. But do they just put up the prices
Continue readingCovid-19: Reported Deaths Aren’t Currently Exceeding Actual Deaths!
I can become irrationally angry when I hear “experts” spouting crap in the media. There is such distrust of authority
Continue readingCovid-19: Effect on R of Household Size
This short post makes a simple arithmetical point. I’ll be referring to it later. Imagine a world where everyone has
Continue readingHow Bad is the Covid-19 Second Wave in England?
Scarcely a day goes by without fresh statistics on the number of Covid-19 infections in the UK. This morning saw
Continue readingCovid-19: The UK’s Loose Lockdown
The Sunday Times Insight team reported yesterday (paywall) that the UK could have avoided thousands of Covid-19 deaths by going
Continue readingCovid-19: How Useful Are R and R0?
The epidemiological concept of the basic reproduction number for an infection, R0, is so context-dependent as to be almost useless,
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