Lucy Letby’s supposed non-randomness
Lucy Letby has been convicted of a series of murders and attempted murders that were clustered in time. If she
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Lucy Letby, Damn Lies and Statistics
Lucy Letby may not be guilty after all. The case began with and relied on a dodgy statistical association between
Continue readingPartygate: How it Started and Why it Matters
The lax approach to Covid laws in Downing Street wasn’t just an affront to the law-abiding public unable to see
Continue readingCovid-19: Omicron’s “Weakness”: Luck or Evolutionary “Design”?
Hypothesis: There may be some truth in the old wives’ tale that diseases become milder over time, though perhaps only
Continue readingCovid-19: On the Waning Effectiveness of Vaccines
Data presented at recent Downing Street press conferences appears to understate the effectiveness of vaccination at preventing hospitalisation with Covid-19.
Continue readingCovid-19: How Seasonal is it?
In my previous post I mused that: “…if the seasonal effect is not extreme, the UK might achieve sustained herd
Continue readingOn Herd Immunity
Definition When would we be able to say that a region or country has achieved “herd immunity” to a contagious
Continue readingCovid-19: Herd Immunity in the UK
“…’cos I wanna be… herd immunity!” with apologies to the Pistols (00:29) The ongoing Covid epidemic in the UK will
Continue readingCovid-19: Reported Deaths Aren’t Currently Exceeding Actual Deaths!
I can become irrationally angry when I hear “experts” spouting crap in the media. There is such distrust of authority
Continue readingCovid-19: Effect on R of Household Size
This short post makes a simple arithmetical point. I’ll be referring to it later. Imagine a world where everyone has
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