Category: Reflections

On Herd Immunity

Definition When would we be able to say that a region or country has achieved “herd immunity” to a contagious

“…’cos I wanna be… herd immunity!” with apologies to the Pistols (00:29) The ongoing Covid epidemic in the UK will

I can become irrationally angry when I hear “experts” spouting crap in the media. There is such distrust of authority

This short post makes a simple arithmetical point. I’ll be referring to it later. Imagine a world where everyone has

The Sunday Times Insight team reported yesterday (paywall) that the UK could have avoided thousands of Covid-19 deaths by going

The epidemiological concept of the basic reproduction number for an infection, R0, is so context-dependent as to be almost useless,

When I arrived at university I wanted to specialise in genetics; by the time I left I wished I’d focussed

Very simple modelling shows the case and death rate in an epidemic, such as of Covid-19, to be highly sensitive

Let me try to make a single point very briefly (for once). If you’re trying to manage an epidemic, an

A test for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 does not have to be extremely reliable at the individual level in order to