How Exceptionally Hot is 2026 in the UK?
Examination of the longstanding Central England Temperature (CET) record suggests summer 2026, whilst the hottest to date, may not be
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How Bad is the UK Heatwave Problem? Part 2: A Changing Climate Regime?
Is the hot, dry summer of 2026 a once in a half-century event, like 1976 but hotter because of global
Continue readingLucy Letby’s supposed non-randomness
Lucy Letby has been convicted of a series of murders and attempted murders that were clustered in time. If she
Continue readingLucy Letby, Damn Lies and Statistics
Lucy Letby may not be guilty after all. The case began with and relied on a dodgy statistical association between
Continue reading2024 in the CET: Mild, Warm and Oh, June
Whereas 2023 was most notable for a record hot September in the Central England Temperature (CET) record and a unique
Continue readingNot So Flaming Junes (Except 2023)
We could be seeing an unusual event in the UK this year. June could be the warmest month of the
Continue readingWas 2023’s really the hottest UK June ever?
Once again the Met Office jumped the gun and declared, with several days still to go, that the UK will
Continue readingLong, Hot Summers: 2022, 1666 and all that
I compare summers in the Central England Temperature (CET) record in three ways: “High Summer” (July and August), Meteorological Summer
Continue readingNot Our Job to Prevent Recession (1): Bank of England
The Bank of England’s inflation mandate virtually guarantees recessions as higher interest rates repeatedly puncture house-price booms. What are higher
Continue readingUK Energy Prices: Are We Dodging the Bullet?
The UK has been hit with an unexpected bill for energy of the order of £100bn. This is a one-off,
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