Uncharted Territory

Covid-19: How Useful Are R and R0?

The epidemiological concept of the basic reproduction number for an infection, R0, is so context-dependent as to be almost useless,

When I arrived at university I wanted to specialise in genetics; by the time I left I wished I’d focussed

Very simple modelling shows the case and death rate in an epidemic, such as of Covid-19, to be highly sensitive

So, back near the dawn of time, it seems, I posted a discussion of how Professor Chris Whitty, the UK’s

It is of crucial importance for governments to make an assessment as early as possible in an epidemic as to

Let me try to make a single point very briefly (for once). If you’re trying to manage an epidemic, an

A test for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 does not have to be extremely reliable at the individual level in order to

“You are stupide!! Nous sommes en guerre! Nous sommes en guerre! President Macron, slightly paraphrased. We will fight Covid-19 in

The UK’s coronavirus response, in particular the transition over the last week from a “mitigation” policy to “suppression”, has been

I’ve already posted some specific points I put in the form of a letter to the Prime Minister on 28th