{"id":6414,"date":"2026-09-04T09:27:12","date_gmt":"2026-09-04T09:27:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/?p=6414"},"modified":"2026-09-04T09:27:12","modified_gmt":"2026-09-04T09:27:12","slug":"summer-2026-comparing-central-england-with-the-whole-uk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/2026\/09\/04\/summer-2026-comparing-central-england-with-the-whole-uk\/","title":{"rendered":"Summer 2026: Comparing &#8220;Central England&#8221; with the whole UK"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Summer 2026 was more exceptional in the Central England Temperature (CET) region than for the whole of the UK.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">My <a href=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/2026\/09\/02\/hot-uk-summer-of-2026-bonus-post\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/2026\/09\/02\/hot-uk-summer-of-2026-bonus-post\/\">previous post<\/a> referenced <a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/about-us\/news-and-media\/media-centre\/weather-and-climate-news\/2026\/summer-2026-provisionally-hottest-on-record-for-the-uk\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/about-us\/news-and-media\/media-centre\/weather-and-climate-news\/2026\/summer-2026-provisionally-hottest-on-record-for-the-uk\">a recent Met Office report on summer 2022<\/a>.  Here&#8217;s what they have to say about how extreme the temperatures were in the UK as a whole:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/about-us\/news-and-media\/media-centre\/weather-and-climate-news\/2026\/summer-2026-provisionally-hottest-on-record-for-the-uk\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" data-src=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-9.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6416 lazyload\" style=\"width:554px;height:auto\"><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"554\" height=\"698\" src=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-9.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6416\" style=\"width:554px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-9.png 554w, https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-9-238x300.png 238w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 554px) 100vw, 554px\" \/><\/noscript><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Fig 1 Excerpt from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/about-us\/news-and-media\/media-centre\/weather-and-climate-news\/2026\/summer-2026-provisionally-hottest-on-record-for-the-uk\">Met Office report on summer 2026<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I was quite surprised by the assertion that summer 2026 was a &#8220;1 in 9 year event&#8221;.  The graph the Met Office supplies (see Fig 1) suggests we haven&#8217;t had a summer even nearly as far above the trend line since 2006.  That is, summers 2018 and 2022 (with the all-time record temperature) were only above average rather than hot.  The &#8220;1 in 9 year event&#8221; claim is just about sustained by the number of comparably above trend summers in the Met Office figure: I see 1887, 1893, 1899, 1911, 1933, 1947, 1955, 1959, 1976, 1983, 1995, 2003 and 2006 as well as 2026, so 14 over 141 years.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Of course, summer 2026 was much more significant in the Central England Temperature (CET) record, <a href=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/2026\/08\/29\/how-exceptionally-hot-is-2026-in-the-uk\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/2026\/08\/29\/how-exceptionally-hot-is-2026-in-the-uk\/\">as I discussed last week<\/a>.  Here&#8217;s the graph of meteorological summer temperatures since 1659: <\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" data-src=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-10-1024x526.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6417 lazyload\"><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"526\" src=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-10-1024x526.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6417\" srcset=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-10-1024x526.png 1024w, https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-10-300x154.png 300w, https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-10-768x394.png 768w, https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-10-1536x789.png 1536w, https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-10.png 1671w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/noscript><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Fig 2 Mean Meteorological Summer CET graph, created by Tim Joslin from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/hadobs\/hadcet\/graphs\/index.html\">Met Office data<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And here&#8217;s a graph confirming that 2026 is the summer most above trend, that is, taking account of global warming, since 1976: <\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" data-src=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-11-1024x526.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6418 lazyload\"><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"526\" src=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-11-1024x526.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6418\" srcset=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-11-1024x526.png 1024w, https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-11-300x154.png 300w, https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-11-768x395.png 768w, https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-11-1536x789.png 1536w, https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-11.png 1670w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/noscript><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Fig 3 Mean Meteorological Summer CET graph, with deviations from trend, created by Tim Joslin from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/hadobs\/hadcet\/graphs\/index.html\">Met Office data<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I explained the method in <a href=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/2026\/09\/02\/hot-uk-summer-of-2026-bonus-post\/\">my last post<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/2026\/09\/02\/hot-uk-summer-of-2026-bonus-post\/\">Last week&#8217;s post<\/a> suggested that, nevertheless, even hotter summers than 2026 are now possible (as the Met Office notes for the UK as a whole) and as global warming continues over the coming decades these will become more likely (as the Met Office also stress).   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/about-us\/news-and-media\/media-centre\/weather-and-climate-news\/2026\/summer-2026-provisionally-hottest-on-record-for-the-uk\">Met Office report<\/a> also provides a map (Fig 4, below) showing that summer 2026 was much more exceptional in England than Scotland, which, they say, &#8220;reported [only] its joint-sixth warmest summer on record&#8221;.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" data-src=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-12.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6419 lazyload\"><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"555\" height=\"767\" src=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-12.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6419\" srcset=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-12.png 555w, https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-12-217x300.png 217w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 555px) 100vw, 555px\" \/><\/noscript><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Fig 4 Excerpt from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/about-us\/news-and-media\/media-centre\/weather-and-climate-news\/2026\/summer-2026-provisionally-hottest-on-record-for-the-uk\">Met Office report on summer 2026<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Clearly on this occasion England did most of the heavy lifting!  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summer 2026 was more exceptional in the Central England Temperature (CET) region than for the whole of the UK. My<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[92,104,20,183,51,65],"tags":[205,187,185,186],"class_list":["post-6414","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-effects","category-global-climate-trends","category-global-warming","category-heatwaves","category-science","category-uk-climate-trends","tag-central-england-temperature-record","tag-global-warming","tag-heatwave","tag-weather-record"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6414","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6414"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6414\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6421,"href":"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6414\/revisions\/6421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6414"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6414"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6414"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}