{"id":6392,"date":"2026-09-02T21:40:48","date_gmt":"2026-09-02T21:40:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/?p=6392"},"modified":"2026-09-02T21:42:12","modified_gmt":"2026-09-02T21:42:12","slug":"hot-uk-summer-of-2026-bonus-post","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/2026\/09\/02\/hot-uk-summer-of-2026-bonus-post\/","title":{"rendered":"Hot UK Summer of 2026: Bonus Post"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>I present a few more graphs exploring how exceptionally hot summer 2026 has been in the UK. How frequently can we expect such summers and worse as global warming continues?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The (presumably) final mean Central England Temperature (CET) for August has now been published (Fig 1, below). I&#8217;m interested in the mean rather than the (mean of daily) maxima or minima because this best captures the impact on the environment. In cities, for example, it&#8217;s the best measure of how buildings heat over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The August figure has come in at 18.6C rather than the 18.5C estimate I used in <a href=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/2026\/08\/29\/how-exceptionally-hot-is-2026-in-the-uk\/\">my previous post<\/a>, so obviously the graphs here will use the slightly higher figure.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" data-src=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-1024x502.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6394 lazyload\"><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"502\" src=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-1024x502.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6394\" srcset=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-1024x502.png 1024w, https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-300x147.png 300w, https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-768x376.png 768w, https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image.png 1304w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/noscript><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Fig 1 Screen grab of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/hadobs\/hadcet\/cet_info_mean.html\">Met Office mean CET page for the current year<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I&#8217;ve been reviewing what I wrote during the hot summer of 2018. One point I made then was that an important measure of how hot a summer has been is the two hottest months, July and August. I can now confirm that 2026 was, by a comfortable margin, the hottest &#8220;High Summer&#8221; in the whole CET record, back to 1659 (Fig 2, below).<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" data-src=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-2-1024x524.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6397 lazyload\"><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"524\" src=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-2-1024x524.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6397\" srcset=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-2-1024x524.png 1024w, https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-2-300x153.png 300w, https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-2-768x393.png 768w, https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-2-1536x785.png 1536w, https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-2.png 1676w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/noscript><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Fig 2 Mean July-August CET graph, created by Tim Joslin from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/hadobs\/hadcet\/graphs\/index.html\">Met Office data<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But let&#8217;s try to answer our question: <em>given<\/em> global warming, how exceptional has this summer been?  For example, there&#8217;s been 31 years of warming since the previous hottest &#8220;High Summer&#8221;, in 1995.  If 2026 was as extreme as 1995, should it have been even hotter?  And there&#8217;s been even more warming since 1983 and especially 1911, which the data suggests was the hottest summer before the global warming era.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/2018\/08\/05\/uk-heatwaves-what-are-the-global-warming-risks-1-a-really-freak-summer\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/2018\/08\/05\/uk-heatwaves-what-are-the-global-warming-risks-1-a-really-freak-summer\/\">Back in 2018<\/a> I came up with the idea of representing mean temperatures as deviations from the 21-year running mean centred on the year in question to give a better idea of which have been the most exceptional summers.  I thought I&#8217;d bring some of these graphs up to date to see where 2026 sits in the meteorological pantheon. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Of course, we don&#8217;t know what the 21-year running mean centred on 2026 actually is. We won&#8217;t know that accurately until the data is in for 2036! In 2018 I simply set the 21-year running means up to the current year to the last figure available. Here, I&#8217;m adding a twist or,  more specifically, my best guess of 0.02C per year to the running mean figure, to allow for global warming. So in this case the running mean from 2006-2026 was 16.92C, so I&#8217;ve set it to 16.94 for 2007-2027 &#8211; that is, the 21-year mean centred on 2017 &#8211; and 16.96 for 2008-2028 and so on up to 17.12 for 2016-2036, the 21-year mean centred on 2026. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If I were to use a higher figure than 0.02C\/year then 2026 becomes slightly less exceptional. The effect isn&#8217;t huge: after all, most of the global warming since (say) 1995 is already in the 21-year running mean centred on 2016.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Enough preamble.  Here&#8217;s the graph (Fig 3):<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" data-src=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-3-1024x526.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6398 lazyload\"><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"526\" src=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-3-1024x526.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6398\" srcset=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-3-1024x526.png 1024w, https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-3-300x154.png 300w, https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-3-768x395.png 768w, https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-3-1536x789.png 1536w, https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-3.png 1670w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/noscript><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Fig 3 Mean July-August CET graph, created by Tim Joslin from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/hadobs\/hadcet\/graphs\/index.html\">Met Office data<\/a>, with deviations from 21-year running mean<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So July and August 2026 was a notably extreme summer at 1.93C hotter than the mean, but a lot less extreme than 1911, when &#8220;High Summer&#8221; was 2.73C hotter than the mean for the time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Other July-Augusts that were relatively hotter than 2026 were (in descending order) 1995 (2.32C above the mean of the time), 1983 (2.26C), 1826 (2.12C), 1955 (2.11C), 1976 (2.05C), 1899 (2.01C) and 1975 (1.95C).  1947 only comes in at 1.75C over the mean for the period 1937-1957. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On this basis I&#8217;d say the heat of July and August 2026 is about a 1 in 20 year event.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We&#8217;ve already seen in <a href=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/2026\/08\/29\/how-exceptionally-hot-is-2026-in-the-uk\/\">the last post<\/a> that Meteorological Summer 2026 was more like a one in 50-year event, with only a few summers more exceptional for their era.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Back in 2018 I was taken by the fact that that year was the hottest on record for May-July, &#8220;Early Summer&#8221; if you like.  How does 2026 compare on that measure?  Fig 4 (below), shows that 2026 was by far the hottest on record and also, again, one of the most exceptional.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" data-src=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-5-1024x525.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6402 lazyload\"><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"525\" src=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-5-1024x525.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6402\" srcset=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-5-1024x525.png 1024w, https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-5-300x154.png 300w, https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-5-768x394.png 768w, https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-5-1536x788.png 1536w, https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-5.png 1670w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/noscript><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Fig 4 Mean May-July CET graph, created by Tim Joslin from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/hadobs\/hadcet\/graphs\/index.html\">Met Office data<\/a>, with deviations from 21-year running mean<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As can be seen in the figure, only 5 years have been more exceptional than 2026 which was 1.77C hotter than the mean for the era: 1976 (2.07C hotter), 1846 (2.06C), 1762 (2.02C), 1868 (1.95C) and 1808 (1.83C).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As we now have the data for August, let&#8217;s see if that changes the picture (Fig 5, below):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" data-src=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-6-1024x526.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6404 lazyload\"><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"526\" src=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-6-1024x526.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6404\" srcset=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-6-1024x526.png 1024w, https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-6-300x154.png 300w, https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-6-768x395.png 768w, https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-6-1536x789.png 1536w, https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-6.png 1670w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/noscript><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Fig 5 Mean May-August CET graph, created by Tim Joslin from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/hadobs\/hadcet\/graphs\/index.html\">Met Office data<\/a>, with deviations from 21-year running mean<br><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here, 2026 again looks among the most notable years for sustained heat, coming out at 1.77C hotter than the (estimated) running mean for 2016-2036.  Only 1976 (anyone spotting a pattern?) at 1.98C above the mean for its period, 1846 (1.89C) and 1846 (1.87) were more exceptional.  1868 was equal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For me, though, a really memorable summer should persist into September, so we&#8217;ll have to wait for a full verdict and characterisation of summer 2026.  2026 is already top of the lists I <a href=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/2022\/11\/05\/long-hot-summers-2022-1666-and-all-that\/\">made in 2022<\/a> for High Summer and Meteorological Summer.  It would have to be cool (around the same as in 2015 or 2012, when we had the two coldest Septembers in the last 30 years) not to exceed 2006 as the hottest &#8220;Long Summer&#8221;, but how exceptional will it be? Plot spoiler: 1846 will be tough to beat!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I&#8217;ll also try to look at &#8220;Full Summer&#8221; (May to September), when 1846 is even tougher to beat!        <\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It might be worth noting that one of the most anomalously cool summers in these graphs was 1879.  Were there volcanic eruptions leading up to it, like for 1816?  No.  What actually preceded summer 1879 was the 1877-8 &#8220;Super&#8221; El Nino, the precedent for the developing &#8220;Godzilla&#8221; 2026-7 El Nino (150 years of superlative inflation there!).  Wonder what&#8217;ll happen in summer 2028?  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What are the professionals saying about the chances of another summer like 2026?  The Met Office have published <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/metoffice\/status\/2094765857712775439\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/x.com\/metoffice\/status\/2094765857712775439\">a Twitter thread<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/about-us\/news-and-media\/media-centre\/weather-and-climate-news\/2026\/summer-2026-provisionally-hottest-on-record-for-the-uk\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/about-us\/news-and-media\/media-centre\/weather-and-climate-news\/2026\/summer-2026-provisionally-hottest-on-record-for-the-uk\">a longer document<\/a> which unfortunately only answers the question for the whole of the UK, some of which had an exceptionally hot summer and some of which did not.  The CET record seems a good compromise between that and a single weather station.  Anyway, the Met Office say:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cOur analysis shows a summer like [they&#8217;re just referring to the mean temperature here] the one we\u2019ve just experienced is now around 130 times more likely because of climate change. In a climate unaffected by human emissions of greenhouse gases, a summer like this would be exceptionally unlikely, i.e. 1 in over 1,000 years. In our current climate, which is changing because of the effect of burning of fossil fuels, we should now expect this to be roughly a 1 in 9 year event.&#8221;  <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Personally I think we should consider the possibility &#8211; at least for the CET area &#8211; that summers as hot as 2026 were simply not possible <em>at all<\/em> before global warming.  Summer 2026 has been, by most measures I&#8217;ve looked at here and in <a href=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/2026\/08\/29\/how-exceptionally-hot-is-2026-in-the-uk\/\">my previous post<\/a>, not just hotter but (excepting July-August, Fig 2 and 3, above) <em>significantly<\/em> hotter than any previous summer.  If a hotter summer were possible then surely, one might argue, it would have occurred in 1976, or 1911 or 1846.  On the other hand, if you could string together <a href=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/2026\/07\/03\/1846-and-all-that-was-june-2026-really-the-hottest-ever-in-england\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/2026\/07\/03\/1846-and-all-that-was-june-2026-really-the-hottest-ever-in-england\/\">June 1846<\/a>, July 2006 and August 1995, all of which were hotter than those months in 2026, the record would be well beaten.  But is that physically possible in the Earth system?  (And the July and August records were during the global warming era, of course).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For the CET area on its own and hence population centres like London and Birmingham, the data here (the graphs for the Meteorological Summer period which the Met Office report covers are in <a href=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/2026\/08\/29\/how-exceptionally-hot-is-2026-in-the-uk\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/2026\/08\/29\/how-exceptionally-hot-is-2026-in-the-uk\/\">my previous post<\/a>) suggests the return time for an event like summer 2026 is more than 9 years.  But if weather patterns have changed for the long-term to make hotter English summers more likely that will not be true.  And remember, continued global warming makes hotter summers more and more likely&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On which point the Met Office document also includes an interesting graphic (Fig 6, below).   <\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" data-src=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-7-1024x576.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6408 lazyload\"><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-7-1024x576.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6408\" srcset=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-7-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-7-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-7-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-7-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-7-2048x1152.png 2048w, https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-7-1360x765.png 1360w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/noscript><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Fig 6 Graph <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/metoffice\/status\/2094766868661727527\">published<\/a> by Met Office<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">They note that &#8220;summer 2026 would be around average for a UK summer in a world 2.5 &#8211; 3\u00b0C warmer than the pre-industrial period&#8221;.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What I&#8217;d like to have seen is a similar sausage (banana?, runner bean?) in the graphic for 1.5C warming, i.e. roughly where we are now.  Nevertheless, it is interesting to know that, from the graphic, about 1 in 3 or 4 UK (again, not necessarily the CET area, i.e. &#8220;Central England&#8221;) summers can be expected to be as hot as 2026 with 2C of global warming, i.e. around 2050, the way things are looking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The long tails on the beans in Fig 6 suggest much hotter summers are possible, but again it would be nice to see where we are on the 1.5C bean.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The best I can find is a figure from an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/api\/assets\/file\/hctn_summer_2025_analysis_v1pdf?prefix=assets\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/api\/assets\/file\/hctn_summer_2025_analysis_v1pdf?prefix=assets\">attribution study<\/a> (pdf) from 2025 which the Met Office document links to (Fig 7, below).   <\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" data-src=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-8.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6409 lazyload\"><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"729\" height=\"660\" src=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-8.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6409\" srcset=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-8.png 729w, https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-8-300x272.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 729px) 100vw, 729px\" \/><\/noscript><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Fig 7 Graphic from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/api\/assets\/file\/hctn_summer_2025_analysis_v1pdf?prefix=assets\">Met Office 2025 attribution study<\/a> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now, the temperature anomaly for 2026 was 0.4C more than in 2025, according to the Met Office.  Looking at Fig 7 that suggests to me we&#8217;re still a way from the 95th percentile (the mauve area on the right), which, of course, we would be if summer 2026 is a 1 in 9 chance.  So, for the UK as a whole, we could &#8211; a one in 20 chance each year &#8211; see a summer spiking up as it did for, I think 1976, 1947, 1933, 1911 and 1899 in Fig 7.  But of course, that might mean similar temperatures in the CET area combined with a hotter summer in Scotland.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We might have to wait a few years, since the developing El Nino is expected to lead to a less hot summer in 2027 and the rebound <em>may<\/em> lead to a cooler summer in 2028, like in 1879.  But this is almost guesswork at this stage&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In conclusion, the risk I identified <a href=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/2018\/08\/05\/uk-heatwaves-what-are-the-global-warming-risks-1-a-really-freak-summer\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/2018\/08\/05\/uk-heatwaves-what-are-the-global-warming-risks-1-a-really-freak-summer\/\">back in 2018<\/a> of a really freakish summer only partially materialised in 2026.  My graphs and the Met Office graphics in Figs 6 and 7 all suggest hotter summers than 2026 are possible, even before further global warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I present a few more graphs exploring how exceptionally hot summer 2026 has been in the UK. How frequently can<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[92,104,20,183,51,65],"tags":[205,187,185,186],"class_list":["post-6392","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-effects","category-global-climate-trends","category-global-warming","category-heatwaves","category-science","category-uk-climate-trends","tag-central-england-temperature-record","tag-global-warming","tag-heatwave","tag-weather-record"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6392","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6392"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6392\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6412,"href":"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6392\/revisions\/6412"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6392"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6392"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timjoslin.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6392"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}